What’s Coming: The Changing Domestic and World Orders Under the Trump Administration

即将发生的事情：特朗普政府下国内和世界秩序的变化

解释：

What’s Coming: 即将发生的事情
Changing Domestic and World Orders: 国内和世界秩序的变化
Trump Administration: 特朗普政府

Now that the nightmare scenario of a close Trump loss and ensuing fight over the election has been taken off the table by a decisive Trump-led rightist sweep over Harris’s leftist alternative and a number of his key appointments have been announced, a picture of what is likely to happen is emerging.

现在，特朗普以压倒性的胜利战胜哈里斯的左翼替代方案，紧接着的选举争斗的噩梦情景已被排除，随着他的一些关键任命的宣布，未来可能发生的情况逐渐浮现。

解释：

nightmare scenario: 噩梦情景，指非常不利的局面
close Trump loss: 特朗普的微弱失利
ensuing fight over the election: 随之而来的选举争斗
decisive: 决定性的，具有决定性作用的
rightist sweep: 右翼席卷，指右翼政党或候选人获得压倒性胜利
leftist alternative: 左翼替代方案
key appointments: 关键任命

I want to make clear that the picture I am painting is meant to be as accurate as possible without any biased opinions of good or bad, because accuracy is what's most important for making decisions in the best possible way.

我想明确表示，我所描绘的图景旨在尽可能准确，而不带有任何好坏的偏见，因为准确性是以最佳方式做出决策时最重要的因素。

解释：

make clear: 明确表示
painting a picture: 描绘图景，指描述某种情形
accurate: 准确的
biased opinions: 偏见，主观意见
good or bad: 好或坏
making decisions: 做出决策
best possible way: 最佳方式

The picture that I see is one of 1) a giant renovation of government and the domestic order aimed at making it run more efficiently, which will include an internal political war to convert that vision into reality, and 2) an “America first” foreign policy and preparation for external war with China, which is perceived to be America’s greatest threat.

我所看到的图景是：1）对政府和国内秩序进行大规模改革，旨在提高其效率，这将包括一场内部政治斗争，以将这一愿景变为现实；2）一种“美国优先”的外交政策和对外与中国的战争准备，因为中国被视为美国最大的威胁。

解释：

giant renovation: 大规模改革，指重大变革
domestic order: 国内秩序
run more efficiently: 更高效地运作
internal political war: 内部政治斗争
convert that vision into reality: 将愿景变为现实
America first: 美国优先，指优先考虑美国利益的政策
foreign policy: 外交政策
external war: 对外战争
perceived: 被视为，认为

The most recent analogous period is the 1930s, when such an approach emerged in several countries.

最近的类似时期是1930年代，当时这种做法在几个国家中出现。

解释：

analogous period: 类似时期
emerged: 出现，显现

The people Donald Trump is choosing to make this happen with him are: Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy, who will run the newly proposed Department of Government Efficiency; Matt Gaetz, who, as Attorney General (if he gets the Senate’s approval), will push the legal limits of what those who are running this new order can do; RFK Jr., who would radically reform the healthcare system, as Secretary of Health and Human Services; and Marco Rubio as Secretary of State, Tulsi Gabbard as Director of National Intelligence, and Pete Hegseth as Secretary of Defense, who will lead the fight against foreign adversaries.

特朗普所选择的人来实现这一目标包括：埃隆·马斯克和维韦克·拉马斯瓦米，他们将负责新提议的政府效率部；马特·盖茨，如果获得参议院批准，将担任总检察长，推动新秩序的运行者的法律界限；RFK Jr.将作为卫生与公共服务部长进行医疗系统的根本改革；马尔科·鲁比奥担任国务卿，图尔西·加巴德担任国家情报局局长，皮特·赫格塞斯担任国防部长，领导对抗外国对手的斗争。

解释：

choosing: 选择
Department of Government Efficiency: 政府效率部
Attorney General: 总检察长
push the legal limits: 推动法律界限
Secretary of Health and Human Services: 卫生与公共服务部长
radically reform: 根本改革
Secretary of State: 国务卿
Director of National Intelligence: 国家情报局局长
Secretary of Defense: 国防部长
foreign adversaries: 外国对手

Many, many others—some who might be in government and some who will be outside advisors, like Tucker Carlson, Steve Bannon, and a few Trump family members—will be on the mission with Trump.

许多其他人——一些可能在政府中，一些将作为外部顾问，比如塔克·卡尔森、史蒂夫·班农和一些特朗普家族成员——将与特朗普共同参与这一使命。

解释：

outside advisors: 外部顾问
mission: 使命

They are all win-at-all-cost loyalists to the leader and to the mission of bringing down the so-called “deep state” and replacing it with a new domestic order that they hope will create maximum economic strength and fight foreign enemies.

他们都是不惜一切代价忠于领导者和推翻所谓“深层国家”的使命，并希望用新的国内秩序取而代之，从而创造最大的经济实力，抵抗外国敌人。

解释：

win-at-all-cost loyalists: 不惜一切代价的忠诚者
bring down: 推翻
deep state: 深层国家，指政府内部的权力结构
new domestic order: 新的国内秩序
maximum economic strength: 最大经济实力
fight foreign enemies: 抵抗外国敌人

Once these people are in place, the same appointment approach will likely be used to purge the government of those accused of being part of the “deep state,” who are not aligned with and loyal to the mission.

一旦这些人到位，可能会采用相同的任命方式来清除被指控为“深层国家”一部分的政府人员，他们与这一使命不一致且不忠诚。

解释：

in place: 到位，指职位安排妥当
appointment approach: 任命方式
purge: 清除，指清除不忠诚的人员
accused of being part of: 被指控为...的一部分
aligned with: 与...一致
loyal to the mission: 对使命忠诚

This will extend to all parts of the government system including those that were previously thought to be less politically/ideologically controlled, such as the military, the Department of Justice, the FBI, the SEC, the Federal Reserve, the Food and Drug Administration, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the Department of Homeland Security, the Department of the Interior, and “Schedule F” government employees (a job classification that President-elect Trump wants to reintroduce to reclassify certain government jobs to remove civil service protections).

这将扩展到政府系统的所有部分，包括那些以前被认为政治/意识形态控制较少的部分，如军队、司法部、联邦调查局、证券交易委员会、联邦储备委员会、食品和药物管理局、疾病控制与预防中心、国土安全部、内政部，以及“F计划”政府雇员（特朗普当选总统希望重新引入的一种职位分类，以重新分类某些政府职位，取消公务员保护）。

解释：

extend to: 扩展到
less politically/ideologically controlled: 政治/意识形态控制较少
military: 军队
Department of Justice: 司法部
FBI: 联邦调查局
SEC: 证券交易委员会
Federal Reserve: 联邦储备委员会
Food and Drug Administration: 食品和药物管理局
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention: 疾病控制与预防中心
Department of Homeland Security: 国土安全部
Department of the Interior: 内政部
Schedule F government employees: F计划政府雇员

Most all appointed positions that the president (in conjunction with the Republican-controlled Senate, House, and the Department of Justice) can control will be controlled, to have people aligned with President Trump and his new domestic order in place.

总统（与共和党控制的参议院、众议院和司法部联合）能够控制的大多数任命职位将会被控制，以确保与特朗普总统及其新的国内秩序一致的人在位。

解释：

appointed positions: 任命职位
in conjunction with: 与...联合
Republican-controlled: 共和党控制的
aligned with: 与...一致
new domestic order: 新的国内秩序

In the process of doing this, most everyone in and out of government will be viewed as either an ally or an enemy, and all powers at the disposal of Donald Trump and allies will be used to beat the enemies who are standing in the way of their reforms.

在这个过程中，政府内外的大多数人将被视为盟友或敌人，特朗普及其盟友掌握的所有权力将被用来打击那些阻碍其改革的敌人。

解释：

viewed as: 被视为
ally: 盟友
enemy: 敌人
powers at the disposal: 掌握的权力
beat the enemies: 打击敌人
standing in the way of: 阻碍

I think they will almost certainly have a big impact on changing the domestic and world orders. What will they look like?

我认为他们几乎肯定会对改变国内和世界秩序产生重大影响。它们将是什么样子？

解释：

big impact: 重大影响
changing: 改变
domestic and world orders: 国内和世界秩序

The Changing Domestic Order

国内秩序的变化

解释：

Changing Domestic Order: 国内秩序的变化

It is now clear that Donald Trump and those he is choosing will reform government and the country like a corporate raider engaging in a hostile takeover of an inefficient company, making huge reforms to it by changing the people, slashing costs, and infusing it with new technologies.

现在很明显，特朗普及其选择的人将像企业掠夺者一样改革政府和国家，进行敌意收购一个低效的公司，通过更换人员、削减成本和注入新技术进行巨大的改革。

解释：

corporate raider: 企业掠夺者，指通过敌意收购进行改革的商人
hostile takeover: 敌意收购，指未经目标公司同意而收购
inefficient company: 低效公司
huge reforms: 巨大改革
slashing costs: 削减成本
infusing it with new technologies: 注入新技术

Think of Gordon Gekko and the perspective he conveyed in his “greed is good” speech, while recognizing that this is coming from the president of the United States, who is going to take that approach to the central government and the entire country.

想想戈登·盖科在他的“贪婪是好的”演讲中所传达的观点，同时认识到这是来自美国总统，他将采取这种方法来治理中央政府和整个国家。

解释：

Gordon Gekko: 戈登·盖科，电影《华尔街》中的角色，代表贪婪的商业精神
greed is good: 贪婪是好的，指贪婪可以促进经济增长
perspective: 观点
central government: 中央政府
entire country: 整个国家

As mentioned, the most recent analogous historical cases were the hard-rightist states in the 1930s.

如前所述，最近的类似历史案例是1930年代的极右国家。

解释：

analogous historical cases: 类似的历史案例
hard-rightist states: 极右国家

To be clear, I am not saying that Trump and those in his government are fascist or will behave as fascist leaders did in many respects; what I am saying is that, in order to understand those who are now taking control with nationalistic, protectionist, top-down, government-led economic and social policies, and who have little tolerance for internal opposition and are embroiled in international great powers conflicts, it is worth understanding how those states with analogous policies in the 1930s behaved.

需要明确的是，我并不是说特朗普及其政府中的人是法西斯主义者，或将在许多方面表现得像法西斯领导人；我所说的是，为了理解那些现在以民族主义、保护主义、自上而下、政府主导的经济和社会政策掌握控制权的人，并且对内部反对意见几乎没有容忍度，且卷入国际大国冲突，了解1930年代那些拥有类似政策的国家的行为是很有必要的。

解释：

fascist: 法西斯主义者
behave: 行为
nationalistic: 民族主义的
protectionist: 保护主义的
top-down: 自上而下的
government-led: 政府主导的
economic and social policies: 经济和社会政策
internal opposition: 内部反对
embroiled in: 卷入
international great powers conflicts: 国际大国冲突

The economic renovation of the country will, in all likelihood, come via industrial policies that are designed to improve productivity and efficiency without much worry given to the people or issues—such as taking care of the environment, addressing climate change, remediating poverty, or encouraging diversity, equity, and inclusion—that could stand in the way of these things happening.

国家的经济改革很可能将通过旨在提高生产力和效率的工业政策来实现，而不会过多关注人民或问题——例如保护环境、应对气候变化、改善贫困或促进多样性、公平和包容——这些可能会妨碍这些事情的发生。

解释：

economic renovation: 经济改革
industrial policies: 工业政策
improve productivity and efficiency: 提高生产力和效率
without much worry given to: 不会过多关注
taking care of the environment: 保护环境
addressing climate change: 应对气候变化
remediating poverty: 改善贫困
encouraging diversity, equity, and inclusion: 促进多样性、公平和包容

Certain key areas (including the areas that I think are most important, which are education and debt management) will likely be neglected (and would have also been neglected by the Democrats).

某些关键领域（包括我认为最重要的领域，即教育和债务管理）可能会被忽视（而且民主党人也可能会忽视这些领域）。

解释：

key areas: 关键领域
education: 教育
debt management: 债务管理
neglected: 被忽视

For as long as the Trump-Musk partnership lasts, they will be the main designers and implementers of this new domestic order.

只要特朗普与马斯克的合作持续，他们将是这一新国内秩序的主要设计者和实施者。

解释：

partnership: 合作
main designers and implementers: 主要设计者和实施者
new domestic order: 新的国内秩序

These policies may well be great for Wall Street and some tech and most businesses that are plagued by regulations and worried about increased taxes.

这些政策可能对华尔街和一些科技公司以及大多数受到监管困扰并担心增税的企业大有裨益。

解释：

great for: 对...大有裨益
Wall Street: 华尔街，指美国金融市场
plagued by regulations: 受到监管困扰
increased taxes: 增税

While these entities have been previously restrained in many ways from doing deals, they will be much freer from government constraints.

虽然这些实体在许多方面以前受到限制，无法进行交易，但它们将更加不受政府约束。

解释：

restrained: 受到限制
doing deals: 进行交易
freer from government constraints: 更加不受政府约束

These changes will be great for financial deal makers, banks, and asset managers because they will have more freedom and more money and credit, because capital controls will be eased and the Fed will be pressured to make money easier.

这些变化将对金融交易者、银行和资产管理者大有裨益，因为他们将拥有更多的自由和更多的资金与信贷，因为资本管制将被放宽，联邦储备将受到压力以放松货币政策。

解释：

financial deal makers: 金融交易者
banks: 银行
asset managers: 资产管理者
more freedom: 更多自由
capital controls: 资本管制
eased: 放宽
Fed: 联邦储备

These policies will be great for pro-Trump tech companies because they will be allowed to grow and operate in largely unrestrained ways.

这些政策将对支持特朗普的科技公司大有裨益，因为它们将被允许以基本不受限制的方式发展和运营。

解释：

pro-Trump: 支持特朗普的
grow and operate: 发展和运营
largely unrestrained ways: 基本不受限制的方式

These policies will also be good for lawyers, who will be busy too.

这些政策对律师也有好处，他们也将会很忙。

解释：

good for: 对...有好处
lawyers: 律师
busy: 忙碌的

I am already seeing big changes in these people’s plans to do much more under the Trump Administration than they could have done under a Democratic government.

我已经看到这些人在特朗普政府下的计划发生了重大变化，他们将能够做更多事情，而在民主党政府下则无法做到。

解释：

big changes: 重大变化
plans: 计划
do much more: 做更多事情
under a Democratic government: 在民主党政府下

Also, AI won’t be as regulated, and tariffs will be used to simultaneously raise tax money and protect domestic producers.

此外，人工智能的监管将不会那么严格，关税将被用来同时增加税收并保护国内生产者。

解释：

AI: 人工智能
regulated: 监管
tariffs: 关税
raise tax money: 增加税收
protect domestic producers: 保护国内生产者

If the Fed continues in its path to cut interest rates (which I don’t think it should do), that will also shift a lot of cash that is saved in money market funds and other deposits into other markets, which will be stimulative to markets and the economy.

如果联邦储备继续降低利率（我认为不应该这样做），这也将使大量存在货币市场基金和其他存款中的现金转移到其他市场，这将刺激市场和经济。

解释：

cut interest rates: 降低利率
shift a lot of cash: 转移大量现金
money market funds: 货币市场基金
stimulative: 刺激的
markets and the economy: 市场和经济

Also, the realization that the United States is in an economic war and a geopolitical war, and could find itself in a military war, with China as well as with others like Russia, Iran, and North Korea, will have big effects on domestic security and domestic policies.

此外，美国正处于经济战争和地缘政治战争中，并可能与中国以及俄罗斯、伊朗和北朝鲜等其他国家陷入军事战争的认识，将对国内安全和国内政策产生重大影响。

解释：

realization: 认识
economic war: 经济战争
geopolitical war: 地缘政治战争
military war: 军事战争
big effects: 重大影响
domestic security: 国内安全
domestic policies: 国内政策

For example, ensuring that the U.S. will have acceptable amounts of all key technologies will lead to policies for these technologies to be made in the U.S. (e.g., 20% of the most advanced chips will have to be produced in the U.S. by 2030) or made in allied countries, which will require the central government to have strong and insist on well-implemented energy and regulatory policies that enable these changes to be made.

例如，确保美国拥有所有关键技术的可接受数量将导致这些技术在美国生产的政策（例如，到2030年，20%的最先进芯片必须在美国生产）或在盟国生产，这将要求中央政府制定强有力的政策，并坚持实施良好的能源和监管政策，以使这些变化得以实现。

解释：

acceptable amounts: 可接受的数量
key technologies: 关键技术
made in the U.S.: 在美国生产
allied countries: 盟国
central government: 中央政府
strong: 强有力的
well-implemented: 良好实施的
energy and regulatory policies: 能源和监管政策

The Changing International World Order

国际世界秩序的变化

解释：

Changing International World Order: 国际世界秩序的变化

The international world order will change from a) the existing tattered remains of the post-World War II system that was created by the U.S. and its allies, in which there are/were generally agreed-upon global standards of behavior, rules, and governing organizations like the UN, WTO, International Court of Justice, IMF, World Bank, etc. to b) a more fragmented world order, in which the United States will pursue an “America First” policy with clear categorizations of allies, enemies, and nonaligned countries, as there will be greater amounts of economic and geopolitical war and a greater-than-ever chance of military war in the next 10 years.

国际世界秩序将从a）由美国及其盟友创建的二战后体系的现存残余（该体系中普遍存在全球行为标准、规则和治理组织，如联合国、世界贸易组织、国际法院、国际货币基金组织、世界银行等）转变为b）一个更加碎片化的世界秩序，在这个秩序中，美国将追求“美国优先”政策，并明确划分盟友、敌人和非对齐国家，因为未来十年将出现更多的经济和地缘政治战争，军事战争的可能性也将比以往更大。

解释：

international world order: 国际世界秩序
tattered remains: 残余，破碎的部分
post-World War II system: 二战后体系
generally agreed-upon: 普遍认可的
global standards of behavior: 全球行为标准
governing organizations: 治理组织
fragmented world order: 碎片化的世界秩序
pursue: 追求
America First policy: 美国优先政策
clear categorizations: 明确的分类
allies: 盟友
enemies: 敌人
nonaligned countries: 非对齐国家
economic and geopolitical war: 经济和地缘政治战争
military war: 军事战争

In other words, we are now coming to the end of an era led by the United States, in which countries tried to work out together how to be with each other through multinational organizations with guiding principles and rules, and into a more self-interested, law-of-the-jungle-type order with the United States being one of the two biggest players and China the other—and the fight being largely the classic one of capitalism versus communism (in their contemporary versions).

换句话说，我们现在正走向一个由美国主导的时代的结束，在这个时代，各国试图通过具有指导原则和规则的多国组织共同解决彼此之间的关系，而进入一个更加自私、丛林法则式的秩序，其中美国是两个最大参与者之一，而中国是另一个——而这场斗争在很大程度上是经典的资本主义与共产主义（在其当代版本中的斗争）。

解释：

end of an era: 时代的结束
multinational organizations: 多国组织
guiding principles and rules: 指导原则和规则
self-interested: 自私的
law-of-the-jungle-type order: 丛林法则式的秩序
biggest players: 最大参与者
fight: 斗争
capitalism versus communism: 资本主义与共产主义

So, concepts of morality and ethics that were shaped by American views of what is moral and ethical will be much less relevant, as the United States will no longer be the world leader in proposing and enforcing these principles.

因此，由美国对道德和伦理的看法所塑造的道德和伦理观念将变得不那么相关，因为美国将不再是提出和执行这些原则的世界领导者。

解释：

concepts of morality and ethics: 道德和伦理观念
shaped by: 由...塑造
moral and ethical: 道德的和伦理的
much less relevant: 不那么相关
world leader: 世界领导者
proposing and enforcing: 提出和执行

Allies and enemies will be chosen more on the basis of tactical considerations like what the deals will be.

盟友和敌人的选择将更多基于战术考虑，例如交易的内容。

解释：

chosen: 选择
tactical considerations: 战术考虑
deals: 交易

The question of which side countries are on will be most important.

各国站在哪一边的问题将是最重要的。

解释：

which side countries are on: 各国站在哪一边

China will be treated as the primary enemy because it is both the most powerful and the most ideologically opposed, while Russia, North Korea, and Iran are also enemies.

中国将被视为主要敌人，因为它既是最强大的，又是意识形态上最对立的，而俄罗斯、北朝鲜和伊朗也是敌人。

解释：

primary enemy: 主要敌人
most powerful: 最强大的
ideologically opposed: 意识形态上对立的
enemies: 敌人

In fact, China is widely considered the United States’ single greatest threat, even a greater threat than the domestic threats.

事实上，中国被广泛认为是美国最大的单一威胁，甚至比国内威胁更大。

解释：

single greatest threat: 最大的单一威胁
greater threat than: 比...更大的威胁
domestic threats: 国内威胁

As for other countries, I won’t now digress into an explanation of where they stand, but I will say that they all are now categorized as allies and enemies to varying degrees, and this will be a guide for dealing with them.

至于其他国家，我现在不想详细解释它们的立场，但我会说它们现在都被归类为不同程度的盟友和敌人，这将作为与它们打交道的指南。

解释：

digress: 偏离主题
categorized: 被归类
varying degrees: 不同程度
guide for dealing with them: 与它们打交道的指南

I will, however, say that detailed plans are now being worked out for dealing with each major country and each major subject area.

然而，我会说，目前正在制定与每个主要国家和每个主要主题领域打交道的详细计划。

解释：

detailed plans: 详细计划
worked out: 制定
dealing with: 与...打交道
major country: 主要国家
major subject area: 主要主题领域

All countries will be given great pressures and possibilities to change their domestic orders to be aligned with, rather than opposed to, the Trump-U.S. leadership and order, and if they don’t get on our side, they will encounter negative consequences.

所有国家将面临巨大的压力和可能性，以改变其国内秩序，使其与特朗普-美国的领导和秩序保持一致，而不是对立，如果它们不站在我们这一边，将面临负面后果。

解释：

great pressures: 巨大压力
possibilities: 可能性
change their domestic orders: 改变其国内秩序
aligned with: 与...一致
opposed to: 对立
negative consequences: 负面后果

This conflict between the two great powers will create opportunities, most importantly business opportunities, for neutral nonaligned countries.

这两个大国之间的冲突将为中立的非对齐国家创造机会，最重要的是商业机会。

解释：

conflict: 冲突
great powers: 大国
create opportunities: 创造机会
neutral nonaligned countries: 中立的非对齐国家
business opportunities: 商业机会

This change in this world-order dynamic will also have big implications for the developing world (or the “Global South” as it’s now called), and therefore the whole world, because it contains roughly 85% of the world’s population and will likely go its own way, because the U.S. will no longer lead a common world order based on certain ideals and other countries won’t necessarily want to follow the U.S.

这种世界秩序动态的变化也将对发展中国家（或现在所称的“全球南方”）以及整个世界产生重大影响，因为它们大约占全球人